UA already cancelling IAD-HNL flights

I was ticketed on the IAD-HNL this fall. And now the flight is cancelled and I am rebooked on a connection through SFO.

The flight has not started and UA is already cancelling flights

I still see the flight out there, though not daily.

Randy I feel for you. I think the competitive landscape changed after HA announced JFK-HNL non stop.
I think the EWR-HNL flights will stay. There probably isnt demand for 2 east coast flights to Honolulu.

Also the SNA flights to the islands have been paired back.

UA charges a ridiculous premium to fly the long-haul HNL flights and considering HNL traffic is mostly leisure/tourist traffic who usually seeks for the lowest fares.

Connecting via SFO/LAX will almost always be cheaper than connecting via EWR/IAD/IAH/ORD/DEN unless the cheapest fare is already very high.

So, now I am not surprised that this route is tanking... I also suspect that UA is trying to capture government/military traffic between DC and Hawaii and onward to GUM for some, not leisure travelers.

Have you seen some of the prices from SFO lately? $1840 or more on some days several months out.

Airfares to Hawaii on UA has jumped to exorbitant amounts in the last few weeks... I remember seeing some $800s from PIT via SFO/LAX whereas through the other hubs it was close to $2K. Now, everything is averaging at $1200-1400 on UA...

I guess AS needs to acquire some 767s and start flying east coast to Hawaii

UA announced their IAD flight after HA announced their JFK flight.

The theory behind the long-haul flights was that it was no longer actually cheaper to carry the passengers on the connections, in part because fares have gone up. My guess is that they are seeing the demand drop more than expected with the higher fares.

I didn't realize day-of-week cancellations on a new longhaul route during a weak demand + high fuel cost period qualifies as "tanking".

I would pay extra to avoid EWR. Hate that place

It is obviously not attracting the demand or premium they were hoping it will attract. Tanking is probably a bad word choice on my part, but it is not the success they were hoping it would be.

I am sure there are quite few people who would rather fly out of DCA and connect in ORD/DEN/SFO rather than trekking all the way out to IAD just to take the nonstop flight. Again, while I was thrilled to hear UA starting this route, my hunch tells me that one of the primary drivers was to offer government travelers one-stop option to GUM and a nonstop option to HNL, not the leisure market. My hunch could be wrong.

Cova mentioned in TOBB that he is flying on one of the busiest travel days of the year, which I assume is around Thanksgiving break. If that is the case, then it is pretty surprising that they are reducing frequencies during Thanksgiving since it is one of the highest travel time of the year for Hawaii [not only leisure travelers, but military members stationed in the Pacific coming home to see their families].

It looks like the flight is operating 6x weekly for the fall, showing X2 eastbound and X3 westbound over a 13-week period from 01SEP-30NOV. It returns to daily service 01DEC.

After the Tuesday evening arrival from IAD as UA145, one 76H is a RON at HNL, then does a daylight SFO turn (UA72/73) before making up the Wednesday redeye back to IAD as UA144. This Wednesday frequency replaces a domestic 777 to SFO and allows one 76H an opportunity for overnight maintenance at HNL.

Not too bad at all, looks like cova just had bad luck

I would have guessed that with HA doing JFK-HNL, the prices would drop. They have not.
I'm seeing a premium on average of $200-$300 (coach) above last years fares. Round trip purchase.

I was just looking at some other (non-Hawaiian) routes yesterday to see if there was anything I could use for the 25k RDM promo... SFO-LAX seems to be in the $200+ range. Significantly more than I paid in the past.