Using Same Day Confirmed Changes and Expertflyer to maximize upgrades on UA

Hey, looking for some advice on using expertflyer to snag a transcon upgrade.

I'm a UA Gold currently ticketed from SFO-IAD-YUL this Thursday on a red-eye. My plan is to SDC to a slightly earlier flight through Vegas (SFO-LAS-IAD-YUL or SFO-LAS-EWR-YUL) to maximize a chance of an upgrade on the transcon since LAS is usually a lot easier. I don't really care about the SFO-LAS or East Coast-YUL segments since they're so short.

Using expertflyer pro, aside from seeing how many F/A fares are left and looking at how big/full E+, would it also make sense to look at O and I inventory since they're capacity controlled? The rationale being that revenue management is not holding these seats back for last minute F purchases and nobody high enough (i.e Golds or above) could claim the upgrade inside their window, so I would have a better competitive situation at the gate.

Of course, more connecting flights increases the likelihood of delays, but I do have most of Friday to eventually get to YUL. Is this a strategy likely to work or would you say equipment is a bigger deciding factor? I know it's a Thursday, so it'll be tough and any tips are greatly appreciated.

Eric

While you can change the routing, it has to be within the routing rules. you should check to make sure you can connect through vegas.

Also think about connecting in Cleveland or orange county. The sna-ewr red eyes are generally open.

The earlier red-eyes might remove the opportunity for using the sq lounge. Had no issues with a yyz flight and sq lounge access.

You should figure out your fare basis and use EF's historical fare search tool to look up your fare, and thus the routing rules. If it's in there, you're golden.

The only thing which really matters is the number of F seats open for sale. Everything else is gambling in a game where you don't have sufficient data to make an informed bet.