is it a pretty safe bet that the 150,000 points for an award flight on AS from SEA to NRT will drop as the departure of the flight gets closer in time

50% Points Miles and Bling
50% Miles for Family

It isn’t something you can count on. The sources note that the 150 000‑point saver price is the “standard” level for trans‑Pacific business‑class awards on Alaska and that seats at that level are already available, but they don’t mention any tendency for the price to fall as the flight gets closer  Points Miles and Bling . In fact, one writer points out that award availability for Japan often only shows up a couple of weeks before departure, yet the pricing shown remains at the published saver level rather than dropping  Miles for Family . So, based on the information available, there’s no clear evidence that a 150 000‑point award from Seattle to Tokyo will become cheaper as the departure date approaches.

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